Tuesday, 08 June 2021
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CO₂ Reaches Its Highest Level in More Than 4 Million Years.

The New Normal. Enjoy the Ride.
;~).
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-07/co-reaches-its-highest-level-in-more-than-4-million-years
more than a month ago
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#861
The really interesting question is why this isn’t front page news everyday and the top priority of every legislative platform. The solution is, in a sense, simple, but, as they say, it is easier to imagine the end of the world than to do it. ;)
more than a month ago
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#862
Seemingly simple; deceivingly complex. Thanks for your comment.

The most perplexing dilemma will be cultural. Global population will increase by 20% in the next 29 years. Most of this growth will occur in Africa and India, which will concurrently experience massive demographic transitions. I live in Africa, where most cars are 20 years old. That's not going to magically change. For these populations, fossil fuels will remain firmly entrenched. How does the developed world convince the developing world that living like them is a bad idea?
more than a month ago
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#863
Gradually, then suddenly; Hemingway (1926, p. 136).

A tipping point.
Fast forward to an uncertain future. What can we expect? As Earth is a sytem of systems in motion, extreme temperature variations; storm volatility; inundated coastlines; disease prevalence; unprecedented migration. In a word, change. A new normal. Humans as a species will likely survive but in greatly reduced numbers and in drastically altered environments. Bezos and Musk might colonize Mars. But then what? Remember Jamestown? Perhaps Hobbes' (1651) cynical view of life was correct. Context matters!

Background readings:

A 4.5 Billion-Year History of CO₂

https://lnkd.in/d-jMGTY.

A planet in flux | Nature

https://lnkd.in/dvmEfA7
more than a month ago
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#864
Change the title, its 4 million years not 4 billion years - huge difference in the geologic timescale and its inherent history ;-)
more than a month ago
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#866
Change the title, its 4 million years not 4 billion years - huge difference in the geologic timescale and its inherent history ;-)


Thanks, I have edited the title accordingly.

Adam Thyer, Founder at GreenExecutive

more than a month ago
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#867
Thanks for acknowledgement and correction of the error. Agree that the two time referents represent big differences. Apologies for missing it in the initial post.
more than a month ago
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#868
What the developing world has is land in relative comparison to the developed world.
The incentivisation to use the land for not only food but biofeedstocks sustainably is one route to close the techno-economic gap.
This also drives the developing world to follow a different path
more than a month ago
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#869
Perhaps. But people in the developing world, 80% of whom are subsistence farmers, don't think in terms of your Western rationalization. As my driver says in response to discussions of coronavirus infections or CO2, "God will provide. We are his people." Half the world's population think in a deterministic mindset while simultaneously expressing the aspiration to live as we in the West live. For this world going forward through a major demographic transition, I see little interest to embrace the scientific rationality of the developed world. For them, fossil fuels in cars is a predetermined way of life.
more than a month ago
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#871

The most perplexing dilemma will be cultural. Global population will increase by 20% in the next 29 years. Most of this growth will occur in Africa and India, which will concurrently experience massive demographic transitions. I live in Africa, where most cars are 20 years old. That's not going to magically change. For these populations, fossil fuels will remain firmly entrenched. How does the developed world convince the developing world that living like them is a bad idea?


Many people claim that population growth in the developing world doesn't matter because the lion's share of consumption takes place in developed countries. However, I suspect many of those who say this have not spent much time in low-income countries. If they had, they'd know that most of these people desperately want the same extravagant lifestyles they've seen in western media. They'd also be horrified by the environmental decimation that has already happened despite relatively low per-capita consumption levels.

Adam Thyer, Founder at GreenExecutive

more than a month ago
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#872
Meanwhile, there are over 400 new coal mines in the pipeline:

Proposals to build hundreds of new coal mines could raise global output of the fossil fuel by 30%, putting the world’s climate goals or up to $91bn of investment at risk.

Those are the key findings of Global Energy Monitor’s first comprehensive survey of global coal mine proposals, based on data from our new Global Coal Mine Tracker.

We found more than 400 new mine proposals that could produce 2,277m tonnes per annum (Mtpa), of which 614Mtpa are already being developed. The plans are heavily concentrated in a few coal-rich regions across China, Australia, India and Russia.

If they all went ahead, the new mines could supply as much as 30% of existing global coal production – or the combined output of India, Australia, Indonesia and the US.

Yet last month, the International Energy Agency said no new coal mines – nor extensions of existing mines – were “required” in its pathway to 1.5C. A UNEP report last year said coal output should fall 11% each year to 2030, under the same target.

Plans to massively boost coal production are, therefore, incompatible with the 1.5C limit. Alternatively, if global climate goals are to be met, the estimated $91bn of investment in the proposed mines could be left stranded.


Read the full story here:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-hundreds-of-planned-coal-mines-incompatible-with-1-5c-target
more than a month ago
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#874
And so it goes.
The greatest demographic transition in history is occurring concurrently with climate change. Upwards of four to five billion people will migrate from subsistence farming to urban dwellers. In seeking out "better" lifestyles, they will consume used stuff from the West on tight budgets. What is that stuff? Fossil fuel powered castaways from a "cleaner", less populated West. The CO2 problem won't be resolved; it will have simply shifted. Climatic changes will remain alive and well.
And so it goes.
more than a month ago
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#875
Welcome to East Africa. Daily traffic congestion. Fossil fuels only. No EVs.
more than a month ago
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#876
Take Ethiopia for example. The population stands at 110 million. By 2050, 200 million. As a country, Ethiopia represents about 10% of the African population. The other 53 African countries are moving in the same direction so that by 2050, 2 billion people will call Africa home. Of these, 70% are subsistence farmers, 80% in Ethiopia. Thus, 700 million moving toward 1.5 billion are subsistence farmers, 90% of whom earn less than $3 USD per day. That's <= $90 / month. In Ethiopia, that's about 4000 birr per month. Climate change and a desire to live "better" lives will drive most into urban areas in the next 30 years. A good wage in Addis is 16000 to 20000 birr per month ($400-$500) while the average price of a 1600 sq. ft. house is 8 million birr ($250K, foreign investment). Moreover, the average luxury tax on new cars is around 100%, which depreciates by age. At $120K, A new Tesla costs around $240K while a 20 year Toyota Corolla costs $3000. On an annual income of $6000, what will most likely be the car of choice? Now multiply The number of used cars by a billion. Now do the same thing for India. See the problem?
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